Mets...Eventually

Infield:
I’ve talked a lot about the negatives so far, but I see this infield as the best of the best for the 2013 team. Aside from the catcher, there will be no changes from last year. The Mets acquired John Buck from Toronto in the R.A. Dickey trade, along with trading away Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas. To be blunt, Thole and Nickeas were not on my hot list. Neither could hit or field the ball, so why bother having them call games for a growing pitching staff? Travis d’Arnaud will most likely not be catching, to avoid the “Super Two” status (to avoid early arbitration). Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada and David Wright will improve: This is the first consistent infield they’ve had since Shea Stadium.

John Buck will most likely going to start the year catching, with Travis d’Arnaud replacing him sometime in June (along with Zack Wheeler). 

Ike Davis hit 32 home runs after a dreadful first half (.201/.271/.388, 12 home runs, 81 games). His second half improved dramatically, (.255/.346/.542, 20 home runs, 75 games). Due to his poor time at the plate, his fielding was effected very negatively. His dWAR was a dreadful -1.1, something that will not happen again with the proper mindset now at the plate. In his 3rd full year, expect big things from Ike. He has 35 home run potential, something to Mets haven’t seen since (personal favorite) Carlos Delgado back in 2008.   

Daniel Murphy put a smile on my face when he took the field, but not always when he picked up a bat. Now his oWAR (2.1) and dWAR(-0.8) will gladly disagree with me, Murphy played the field better than anyone would have expected after seeing him in left field during his brief stint there in 2008-09. His splits between the first and second half of the season are very similar, with the first half being about .020 points better in every category. Murphy is doing what we expected Reese Havens (points if you remember THAT name), so I’m happy with him! 

Ruben Tejada dWAR: 0.6
Jose Reyes dWAR: -0.9

I’m kidding, that’s now how I’m opening up about Tejada (Tey-Ha-Duh, just for my roommate). By the way, did you know Jose Reyes is playing with R.A. Dickey again? Funny how life works…

Tejada was pretty damn good on the field last year. He played gold glove defense, but what’s a gold glove these days since Derek Jeter can still win them (can’t be a sports blog with ripping on Jeter, right?!). Tejada reminds me of Rey Ordonez, key word being “reminds”. He’s not Ordonez, but certainly can show flashes of being him. He is the poor man’s (and the Wilpon’s are POOR men) Ordonez, with a slightly better bat. Like many Mets, Tejada battled through an injury last season. A healthy shortstop (something we haven’t seen since the Shea days…) will be key having this infield be lights out.

David Wright, officially maning the hot corner until at least 2020. Wright hit his 200th home run on August 24th, against the Houston Astros. He also finished 6th in the MVP voting this past season, primarily because of his great first half (.351/.441/.563). While Ike Davis got hot in the second half, Wright got very cold (.258/.334/416). He tied his 2008 WAR total with a 6.7, and finished with his highest dWAR ever at 2.1 (1.8 above his career average). Things seemed to click at times for Wright, but he NEEDS supporting bats around him. He had Murphy, Captain Kirk and Lucas Duda in the first half until the two outfielders got very cold. Ike Davis stepped up his home run game, but it wasn’t enough for Wright. 

The key to this infields bats and gloves is…consistency! It’s almost too obvious to be true, isn’t it? 

Next time, I’ll look into the bullpen (Brian Wilson, anyone?)

LGM! 

Rotation:
As many of you know, the Mets traded away R.A. Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays. The deal brought in C Travis d’Arnaud (No. 17 on Baseball America’s Top 100 in 2012, P Noah Syndergaard, OF Wuilmer Becerra and veteran C John Buck, while the Mets also sent catchers Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas. The trade bought mixed reactions: losing such a beloved pitcher and Cy Young winner was not easy, but gaining baseballs top catching prospect and a young arm that will help support Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey and Jon Niese in the future. Personally, this was the best trade the Mets could have ever made with the 38 year old knuckle baller. Best part about the Blue Jays getting R.A. you ask? More reasons to root against the Yankees. 

Losing the 2012 Cy Young award winner is a huge lose, but gaining d’Arnaud WILL be worth it. The rotation last year really exceeded my expectations. Johan Santana (pre no-hitter) was fantastic, but having him pitch like that all year was not realistic. I hope to see Santana pitch well enough until mid-July, and Sandy rob another team (Beltran/Wheeler and R.A/d’Arnaud). Jon Niese had his best season yet. Niese’s 13 wins, 190.1 innings, 155 strikeouts, 3.40 ERA and 1.172 WHIP were all career highs. I have always seen Jon Niese as a “poor mans” Tom Glavine. We don’t know where Niese’s career is headed, but he will certainly hold down the 2nd to 3rd spot in the pitching rotation. Matt Harvey looked fantastic in his 8 of his 10 starts and not too hot in only one of those 9. Mike Francesca claims that he’s only beaten “bad teams” but in 13.1 innings against the Phillies, Harvey struck out 13 batters while only giving up 3 runs. He also struck out 10 Nationals in 5 innings and 8 Reds in 7.2 innings. Harvey will be a serious threat in years to come, but don’t be surprised about a “sophomore slump”. Dillon Gee will be back after his surgery and hold down the 5th spot in the rotation. Happy to have THIS back on our team. 

Having these four is a better rotation than most people think. The problem is that it’s only four pitchers. The Mets have been in talks with Chris Young, Carl Pavano, Shaun Marcum and even retiree Javy Vazquez. I would take any of these pitchers, with Marcum being number one on the list. Young was very average last year, so missing out on him wouldn’t be a huge lost. Pavano has been pretty bad his last two seasons, but could make a turn around like he did in his first full year with Minnesota. Marcum has been a strong No. 3 starter throughout his career, so having him fill the 4th/5th spot in the rotation would be fantastic. Vazquez pitches very well in the NL East (with Atlanta and with Florida). In general, any of these four I would be happy with (but mostly Marcum). 

Aside from these free agents the Mets have Jenrry Mejia, Jeremy Hefner and Collin McHugh. These four made spot starts last year, with poor results. The only except is Hefner who made some quality starts in May and McHugh’s first game. MetsBlog reports that Mejia will be the most likely candidate to fill a spot, but this is all pending spring training (link). 

Expect Wheeler to be in the rotation around the same time as Harvey was last season or even earlier. Keep your ears open for newly acquired Noah Syndergaard and compensation pick (for Pedro Feliciano) Michael Fulmer. These will be the guys you see along side with Wheeler, Harvey and Niese.

I expect some surprises again from this rotation of Santana, Niese, Harvey and Gee. 

Next time, I’ll look at the infield.

LGM! 

Justin Upton:
Recently, the Seattle Mariners offered a huge package to acquire outfielder Justin Upton from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The package included P Taijuan Walker (No. 20 on Baseball America’s Top 100 in 2012), SS/2B Nick Franklin (No. 53 on Baseball America’s Top 100 in 2011), P Stephen Pryor and P Charlie Furbush (acquired in the Doug Fister traded in 2012). 

Taijuan Walker is currently No. 2 on the Mariners’ Top 10 prospect list and Nick Franklin is No. 5. The Mariners system is full of good prospects, so sending these two (plus Furbush and Pryor) wouldn’t be the biggest loss for them. The trade has been rejected, although I feel this is a great trade for both clubs. As far as we now know, Sandy Alderson and the Mets have “revived” trade talks with the Diamondbacks. 

My opinions on Justin Upton change almost every season. Thus saying, the package the Mets would have to offer would NOT be worth Justin Upton. I would foresee the deal being:

• P Zack Wheeler 
• SS Wilmer Flores (or is he at 2B? or 3B? or OF? God knows…)
• P Jeurys Familia
• P Jenrry Mejia

This will definitely get it done, but it is 100% not worth it. Getting top catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud was huge for the Mets rebuilding, but that doesn’t mean their minor league system is ready to deal away prospects. There are many Mets fans who feel that the time is now (which happens to be every year…get real you guys…) and we should be competing! So to those fans, I’ll stop you here and explain something…

Atlanta and Washington are in position to run the NL East for at least the next two season, while Philadelphia will be competing with the New York for third place. Miami isn’t going to be doing much, since they’re in the worst shape in the NL East. For now, we have our younger players from their mistakes and observe how Atlanta and Washington plays. Trading away Wheeler and Flores for J.Upton would not help us right now.  

Outfield Concerns:
Our outfield is in bad shape: all of them are too inexperienced to play an entire baseball season (as we saw from Captain Kirk and Lucas Duda’s major declines). Jordany Valdespin does not have the maturity to be a major leaguer and resigning Scott Hairston would only help the offense and throughly hurt the defense. Mike Baxter is a very interesting case: he’s the David Tyree of the New York Mets. You know both stories, so no need to explain. They’re both back up players who got an extra spot in needed situations. Baxter deserves a spot in the outfield, but in time will not be with there for long. 

Brandon Nimmo and Wilmer Flores won’t be around until 2015/2014 at least. Matt den Dekker isn’t good enough to hit in the majors (although definitely a good enough fielder). Baseball America says that Cory Vaughn could make the team in 2016, but that’s 2016 and not 2013. Justin Upton makes sense for this outfield-less team right now, but losing Flores and Wheeler does not make sense period. 

Michael Bourn won’t happen, but I would love to see Sandy give Grady Sizemore a chance.

Next time, I’ll cover some pitching concerns and a brief look at the strong potential of the infield.

LGM! 

Starting a general Mets blog here…would love to be able to share opinions, stories and many more about the Mets.

• twitter.com/MetsEventually
• disqus.com/MetsEventually

Two links I use the most…you’ll find me fighting fans and making trade proposals through Disqus and Mets updates from Twitter. 

Let’s Go Mets!